War in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, oil prices above $90, rising inflation – and equity markets respond with new record highs. Markets are becoming more resilient to the conflict between the US and Iran and are refocusing on fundamentals: strong US earnings growth and an ongoing AI investment cycle that investors are now scrutinising more critically. The Strait of Hormuz remains the key risk, but a diplomatic solution should not be ruled out. As long as earnings keep growing and the economy proves resilient, there are good reasons not to fight the market.

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