Negotiations between the United States and Iran follow a pattern of agreement, rupture and renewed rapprochement, with the oil price acting as the immediate seismograph. The energy shock is colliding with existing sources of price pressure and risks feeding through into wages and inflation expectations. While the Fed under Kevin Warsh has largely abandoned forward guidance, the ECB responded in June to an imported shock that higher European rates can neither prevent nor reverse. Even so, there is reasonable hope of a durable interim solution at the Strait of Hormuz for the remainder of the year.

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