Record highs, a surprisingly strong US economy and billions flowing into artificial intelligence – yet towards the end of October the first cracks appeared in the stock market rally, as investors increasingly asked questions about the profitability of AI investments. Alphabet lost around $500 billion in market value following its quarterly results. Further pressure came from oil prices temporarily above $117 per barrel, ten-year US Treasury yields exceeding 5% and a weak eurozone, where the ECB’s early interest rate increase is seen as a monetary policy mistake. The underlying outlook nevertheless remains constructive: the stock market party is by no means necessarily over, but it is likely to become more demanding.

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