Global capital markets and economic indicators currently present a complex yet overall constructive picture. Although the economic environment remains marked by uncertainty ranging from political tensions to fiscal disputes the underlying fundamentals of many economies are developing more robustly than assumed just a few months ago.
In the United States, an interesting trend is emerging: while price growth has recently moderated, the labor market is losing some momentum. This combination eases pressure on the central bank, making further interest rate cuts more likely over time. Lower financing costs would support both investment and consumption and could help the world’s largest economy continue on its growth path. The positive reactions on U.S. stock markets already reflect this renewed investor confidence.
At the same time, caution is warranted when interpreting the data. Due to the recent government shutdown, the publication of key economic figures is only partially available. As a result, the information base is incomplete, making it more difficult to assess the true economic momentum. Monetary policy must therefore make decisions in an environment where not all signals are available with the usual degree of certainty.
From an international perspective, the economic outlook has brightened further. The OECD has raised its forecast for global growth in the coming year. Notably, expected growth is increasingly broad-based. According to the OECD, it is no longer driven solely by technology-related special effects, but increasingly by growth potential from industry and the service sector. This suggests a more stable and sustainable recovery. In Europe, political and fiscal measures are also expected to gain traction, and in major Asian economies, investment in digitalization and modern production processes continues to support growth.
Against this backdrop, the outlook for capital markets and the global economy remains fundamentally positive. Volatility is likely to persist given geopolitical risks and differing monetary policy views, and high valuation levels in the AI sector could add to fluctuations. Nevertheless, improved global conditions, cautiously supportive monetary policy, and the prospect of more resilient growth indicate that well-positioned companies and selected assets may benefit over the long term. There is much to be said for continuing to pursue opportunities while maintaining attentive risk management a balanced approach that appears appropriate under current conditions.